Embracing Uncertainty
"Uncertainty" has become a common term in business conversations, as developments ranging from artificial intelligence to global politics confront leaders with constant unknowns. Yet uncertainty is not a recent phenomenon -it has always been a fundamental element of strategic thinking. What makes a strategy strong is the ability to imagine multiple futures, tolerate inevitable risks, and accept the presence of the unknown.
The pursuit of a single correct answer, the demand for complete validation, and the desire for certainty often lead to the pretense and illusion of knowledge. This illusion can take on a life of its own, offering a false sense of security that ultimately undermines good decision-making. Such a mindset is dangerous for individuals, communities, and societies, because uncertainty is an inherent part of any environment. Rather than deny it, we should embrace it. Doing so requires humility and a willingness to consider different perspectives.
At EBS, we have embraced uncertainty since our founding in 1988. Originally established as an executive education initiative, EBS partnered with American and Canadian universities to send emerging Estonian managers to short-term study programs in North America. Launching this effort in 1988 required vision and courage - those were still Soviet times, and the future of Estonia was anything but certain.
Estonian entrepreneurs were already at the forefront, exploring new opportunities abroad. To capture the spirit of that moment, consider a 1988 speech by Dr. Stephen Bryen, former Deputy Under Secretary of the U.S. Department of Defense, delivered at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, DC. He remarked:
“I have an unclassified cable here from the State Department... The Soviets are sending over a delegation of Estonians to study joint ventures between American and Estonian business. And I think you're going to see all kinds of minority groups from the Soviet Union coming over, trying to use the sympathy of Americans... They're going to play on those sympathies, and use them as a way of gaining entrée.”
Looking back, attitudes in the United States and developments in Estonia changed quickly. But that is hindsight. At the time, the path forward was far from clear. Progress often requires challenging conventional wisdom and acting in the face of deep uncertainty.
Today, we once again find ourselves navigating disruptive change. Emerging technologies, such as generative AI, bring significant uncertainty. But it is far better to engage with this uncertainty than to ignore it. At EBS, we encourage experimentation with these tools, while emphasizing the importance of transparency and proper attribution. New technologies support human capability by freeing up time for more meaningful learning, skill-building, and creative exploration.
This same spirit of innovation informed the launch of the applied research track in our PhD program in 2022. As with any new initiative, it was difficult to predict how it would be received. Yet it has already attracted strong interest from applicants. Our broader research and development efforts were recently evaluated by a panel of independent international experts, as part of a review organized by the Estonian Research Council. The review highlighted the applied PhD track as a significant achievement and recognized our growth in both the quality and volume of research. This positive assessment confirms the value of our distinctive approach, which integrates academic research with entrepreneurial practice.
As summer approaches, many of us find our thoughts turning toward a well-earned break. Yet this season also offers a meaningful opportunity to pause, to view life from a fresh perspective, and to rediscover the courage to explore, to seek out new possibilities, and to embrace uncertainty — which may, in turn, open doors we might otherwise overlook. I wish you the courage to experiment and, above all, a peaceful and enriching summer.
EBS Rector and Chairman of the Management Board
